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Still haven't bought back but I probably should have just eaten a smaller loss and done it, as the price has gone up quite a bit since the Battery Day and no S&P selloffs.  Still been selling my puts and haven't been assigned... I was counting on getting assigned to get back into the stock but it just doesn't happen.

I figure there will be another selloff (sell the news) after earnings (next week) unless they really kicked ass, which doesn't look probable based on the very expected delivery numbers.  I'm likely going to try to buy back in on that dip, unless the numbers were actually bad, then I'll let the downward momentum play out first. But if it isn't actually bad news to the fundamentals of the company, the selloffs just don't last... they usually rebound by the open of the very next day. That's been the pattern for the No S&P thing and the post-Battery Day thing... I expected downward momentum and instead got a 1-day blip.

I think they will post a profit, but if they don't for whatever reason, there will be a massive selloff as a lot of people are still in just to profit from the S&P inclusion thing. A bad quarter might reset the timer on it.  And one thing that will hurt Tesla's profit is all the other car companies doing horribly, which means they won't be buying so many EV credits from Tesla.

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So I was so impressed with the Tesla CyberTruck I went ahead and put a deposit in on the Tri-Motor AWD with Self Driving.... and can't wait for it to arrive into production late 2021.   Like pledging

Nice!  Welcome to the Tesla fam!

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I'm finally getting assigned on some of the puts I sold.  Been doing this for months figuring I'd get some stock this way at some point, but it only happened today.

Oct 22nd play from when the stock was at 426, "Filled Sell to open 3 TSLA Oct 30 2020 397.5 Put (Weekly) Limit 4.04".  Today it finished at 388.  So I'm buying back in.  I also bought some outright at 405 afterhours on Wednesday.

I still see more downside probable for next week and sold puts today at 350 strike, may do 1 or 2 more next week probably around 350 again.  I can easily see more downward movement due to the election (both before and after) and the covid spike. Also technicals have reversed and there should be a selloff from the momentum riders, in which case we might be in a longer down trend until some news fixes it. Would be a good time for the S&P committee to act.

Also on the day after election day if the markets tank like I think they might from the inevitable uncertainty resulting from states unable to count all their absentee ballots, I'm looking to buy (not sell) a January 2021 call.  By that time quarterly earnings will be in and the election stuff will be resolved, possibly covid vaccines in early deployment, possible S&P 500 inclusion, etc.  I like my chances.

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A good week for my TSLA trading.  I'm 4/5th of my position back in, ready for upward movement before the S&P announcement, if it ever comes.

https://postimg.cc/N9FmYWB4

Have not bought the Jan call because they just didn't get cheap enough because the election never sent the stock down much at all. Still a chance for it if Trump forces the secret service to remove him from the white house by force or if he calls for all the white supremacist militia groups to rise up and overthrow the government.

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  • 2 weeks later...

A week later its still happening. Its the S&P inclusion squeeze. Glad I got back in even if only 4/5ths what I had before. Been selling puts aggressively.  I do think its coming back down to the $500 range after all the S&P tracking funds make their buys in the second half of December.  If its gets ridic high I'm gunna sell then and then rebuy in January.  Only problem with that plan is Tesla's 4Q earnings will probably be really good, so I need back in if I sold before that announcement. Might be too hard to time and if I judge it so I'll just hold.

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So I just held. Price of S&P inclusion was $695, and I think it probably won't drop below $600 going forwards, except for maybe quick dips on bad news.  The arbitrage between these two wasn't big enough for me to pay all kinds of short term gains taxes.

 

Also, back in Oct I said...

Quote

I'm looking to buy (not sell) a January 2021 call.  By that time quarterly earnings will be in and the election stuff will be resolved, possibly covid vaccines in early deployment, possible S&P 500 inclusion, etc.  I like my chances.


I would have made a crazy amount of money off this play, but unfortunately I was waiting for the call I picked out to get down to under $40/share, and it was about $3 above that when the S&P inclusion news hit.  Would have made 5 to 6 times the money I would have put in.  I probably should have just done a more affordable strike. Still figuring that stuff out, but this event was such a one-off I wonder if an opportunity like it will ever present again.

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  • 3 months later...

I've been trading the volatility - buying on the low dips and selling the highs.   I do think it will get back on track though once everyone gets off of the Tech stocks being "so" affected by the rising rates (which is kind of ridiculous but they assume that Tech stocks need to have loans - Tesla doesn't since it is by far the biggest car company (tech) in the world)

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I got assigned puts on the way down, now I'm doing covered calls. Would definitely like to see the price rise enough to get a contract or two assigned on me, I enjoyed the bullish play (selling puts) a lot more than the bearish play.  Will be interesting to see what the delivery/production numbers are in Q1 and if it can move the stock up again.

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17 hours ago, Boildown said:

I got assigned puts on the way down, now I'm doing covered calls. Would definitely like to see the price rise enough to get a contract or two assigned on me, I enjoyed the bullish play (selling puts) a lot more than the bearish play.  Will be interesting to see what the delivery/production numbers are in Q1 and if it can move the stock up again.

After a likely poor amount of car deliveries this quarter (due to a chip shortage) - Tesla should be off to the races again - my guess soon after it takes another leg down (with this upcoming bad news - unless wall street shrugs it off since it is expected)

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    • By Boildown
      So... who plans to get in line tomorrow?  I figure, if I can put all this money on virtual ships that won't be ready for years, I can put that much on a deposit for a real vehicle that won't be ready for years.
       
      Speculation: http://electrek.co/2016/03/30/tesla-model-3-specs
      Truth will partly come out at 8:30 PM tomorrow (Pacific time I think).

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