Jump to content

Tesla CyberTruck


VoA

Recommended Posts

On 3/21/2020 at 9:52 AM, Boildown said:

Yeah but I think we have at least a couple more weeks of bad coronavirus news, and that's assuming the country starts getting its head out of its ass and starts to contain it.  The longer we don't have widely available tests the longer I'm a bear on the market.

Ya but we have a ridiculous amount of Stimulus now.... "Unlimted QE" by the FED and likely a $2 Trillion Stimulus Package from Congress.   I am calling it right here at least for Tesla - it is up most of the way from here on out (and its up today and 2.55% in after hours ;) )

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 4 weeks later...
On 3/21/2020 at 9:52 AM, Boildown said:

Yeah but I think we have at least a couple more weeks of bad coronavirus news, and that's assuming the country starts getting its head out of its ass and starts to contain it.  The longer we don't have widely available tests the longer I'm a bear on the market.

Hopefully you have had a chance to get in or follow Tesla's stock lately.  It has been outperforming the broader market significantly recently.   There is a lot of really good news for Tesla especially in China and maybe their new Gigafactory in the USA (Missouri is offering them a $1 billion incentive) :)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I've been watching it defy the market more often than not lately.  I haven't sold nor bought.  Thought the low would get lower... I can't imagine people are buying cars, and the areas where they make cars are both hotspots for the Virus... or at least warm spots waiting to go hot.

I still think the broad market has a lot more downside, although clearly we're past a local minimum.  The things that will happen are a relaxing of quarantine steps followed by a new spike of virus cases followed by a new longer quarantine.  And right around then companies will start releasing the most dismal quarterly performances that we've ever seen.  But all that doesn't mean that Tesla will follow suit, as we've seen lately.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 1 month later...
  • 2 weeks later...
On 6/10/2020 at 10:48 PM, Boildown said:

Four digits.

Yes I sold it the day it went over $1,000.... it went over that a bit so I lost some but did good considering the stock market crash yesterday.   I'll buy it back as it comes in lower (which is more likely - unless the Battery Day hits.... then it will likely go up another 200 points easily)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah its weird I've been wrong a lot on this stock, so I've stayed out of trading it. But that said I don't see a lot more downside unless the Covid-19 thing gets so much worse in the (inevitable) second wave they re-close everything.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 hours ago, Boildown said:

Yeah its weird I've been wrong a lot on this stock, so I've stayed out of trading it. But that said I don't see a lot more downside unless the Covid-19 thing gets so much worse in the (inevitable) second wave they re-close everything.

There is actually huge upside.  Those that say it is too expensive only think of it as an automotive (slow growth stock) but it is really a tech company with great margins that disrupts many industries.   The reason why it is skyrocketing lately is the amount of awesome sales from the Shanghai Factory in China.... but batter day will be huge as I mentioned.  I hope it drops a bit more so I can jump back in :)

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...
  • 2 weeks later...
On 1/29/2020 at 4:56 PM, Boildown said:

Yeah purely technical analysis there.  But if there was any disappointment, they could have easily given back the recent gains in stock price, we've seen this story many times already.  But that said, it looks like either I was wrong or they beat even inflated expectations... after hours the stock surged another 6% (as of this moment).  I haven't even looked to see if the numbers or good or not.

Edit: The numbers look good and they're even executing well in solar and batteries, for the first time ever.  Y is ahead of schedule, China factory is ahead of schedule and they're going to scale it faster.  3 production numbers have totally destroyed any remaining "demand" short thesis.  And the stock price is up another 6-7% after hours.  I think this is looking like a hard short squeeze.  I'm kinda kicking myself for not doing the straddle/strangle that I "knew" would work in my post 15 hours ago... I just never did one before but I don't know if I'll ever prescient another chance like this one again.


Might be time for another straddle/strangle play ahead of earnings July 22nd.

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/07/10/why-shares-of-tesla-jumped-friday-afternoon.aspx

The stock is stupid high, and earnings are only a few business days away.  If they blow things away in earnings the stock could go even higher, or I think there's an excellent chance people will take profits on the news.  Things have been super volatile and that makes the option play expensive, but if the stock levels out next week that'll reduce the volatility enough to make it affordable.  I'll be looking for a ho-hum day next week and see if I should do it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So that's 3 very ho-hum days in a row for TSLA, which lowers the volatility which means the options are less expensive (also, 3 more days makes them less expensive, maybe all of it is accounted for by the days going by).

That said, doing the Straddle still costs $22,496 according to the midpoints on the calculator linked above.  And I'm not about to spend that much even if I think it might win... that's a just a huge portion of what I have.  Risk isn't worth the reward, for me.  Maybe if TSLA did a 10 to 1 split I'd be willing to risk 1/10th that (and then be rewarded 1/10th if I'm right).

That said, the break evens are at $1725 and $1275.  Anything between that loses money, anything greater than $1725 or less than $1275 makes money.  If the stock price goes to $1950 or $1050 you'd double your money.  And all this has to happen by July 24th (you could pick a different end Friday, but that'd make it more expensive to buy the options).

So lets just see what happens after earnings.  How much money would this play have made or lost?

If you read the TeslaInvestorClub subreddit, people are really convinced Tesla is going to crush in the earnings report and the stock will respond in kind.  I'm not convinced, I think there's an excellent chance it tanks (almost) regardless of the report as people sell on the news.  The one thing I don't think will happen is the stock remains at ~$1500, but as I've shown in order to make money off it moving in some direction it just costs too much.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Had a new idea of just buying the down-side protection... a hedging put option.  A relatively inexpensive one, not one at the money.  That way if the stock goes up after earnings Wednesday I make money from the stock I own, if the stock goes down (they don't post a profit or there's no surprise and people sell on the news) I make money from the stock going down (but not more than I lose in stock price value).  The way I lose the most money is if the stock goes down slowly and not enough to get to my strike price.  But considering the recent unprecedented rise in the TSLA price, it seems like it might be prudent to protect against downside.  I'll probably look for another pre-earnings big run up to make the put less expensive.  Might buy two so I make money on the downward swing if the price is right.  Or none if the stock prices goes down over the next two trading session... to me that makes the stock less volatile and I'm more comfortable ironically lol.


Edit: Didn't get the put option bought, the price of it was spiking even as the stock price was going up, so it didn't hit my limit order.  Oh well.  I save some money on the put, hope the stock doesn't take a dive now.  Earnings release soon.

Edited by Boildown
Link to comment
Share on other sites

So with an hour left of trading Friday we can tell that TSLA is very likely going to end the week somewhere between 1400 and 1450.  My straddle would certainly have lost money had I done it.  The only way out is if I had the foresight to close out the option right before earnings when the stock moved close to 1700, but that's unrealistic to think that I might have done that, I'd certainly have waited until after earnings hoping for the stock to go up, but it didn't.

It was a really useful exercise though, I saw for the first time how the implied volatility changes before and after earnings (huge before, small after).  Which I knew would happen but didn't guess it would happen to that degree.

I also didn't do the put option to protect the downside, but I was close to getting it at $19 per share.  Fortunately after I put it in the limit order it never went that low and I just went unprotected.  Today the same option is trading at around $14 and that's with the stock moving down 5%.  Moving downward should have made the option more valuable, but instead its less because all the Implied Volatility fell away after the earnings report.  So again I lucked out not buy that (but there's still a week to go on that option, so it could still change).

I think my strategy will be to look for multiple days of strong moves in one direction or the other and play a covered put or call out of the money.  But I'll have to be patient.  The other move I'm looking at is possibly to _buy_ a call around 1600 strike-ish expiring just before Battery Day (or maybe just after).  I expect hype and S&P 500 inclusion to drive the stock price up.  But that call is still super expensive.  I won't buy it unless it gets significantly cheaper before S&P 500 inclusion is officially announced.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

https://ir.tesla.com/news-releases/news-release-details/tesla-announces-five-one-stock-split

Five for one split!  Good news, options trading will be a lot easier.  Won't need to risk margin to do cash-secured puts any more.  And the after-hours price jumped $80 on the news just now.

I have been doing cash-secured puts anyways, just with a very conservative strike.  I can probably be more aggressive with them and risk being assigned shares after the split.  Same for covered calls, which I've only done once on TSLA (but was quite nice when it expired worthless).

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 3 weeks later...

I'm actually out of my TSLA shares.  I think they're way overvalued.  A 3-week long short squeeze on news that doesn't fundamentally change anything about the company's long term valuation.  I may regret this, but I definitely think these shares are coming back down fast at the next disappointment, whenever it might come and whatever it might be.  Multiple chances coming up, starting with the S&P 500 thing, or Battery Day.  I think both these are built into the stock price already and the one characteristic we know about short squeezes is when they stop, the stock comes back down swiftly.

I'll probably risk some cash-secured puts now that I can do it at 1/5th the risk, because I don't know _when_ the downside will begin and I may as well profit off this money just sitting in my stock trading account.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sold a lot of cash-secured Puts this week and for next, with strikes between 340 and 320.  Looks like this week's "probably" won't be assigned, next week is the runup to Battery Day so I feel safe about them too.  But I'm kinda mad that Tuesday was the only chance to buy TSLA outright at a reasonable price... I did not anticipate the stock to rebound that fast, especially as afterhours was also down.  Now hoping for more down days or a sell-off after Battery Day (it happened after Autonomy Day) to buy back in... I'd really like to not buy back in at today's levels... it still seems grossly overvalued to me.  That said I do want back in for the long term.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • 2 weeks later...

Oh yeah the afterhours market is selling TSLA hard from this overhyped Battery Day.  Huge drop the moment it became clear that the presentation was over and the Q&A began and there was nothing immediately relevant they're announcing.  Will be looking to buy back in if it gets low enough tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 9/22/2020 at 4:22 PM, Boildown said:

Oh yeah the afterhours market is selling TSLA hard from this overhyped Battery Day.  Huge drop the moment it became clear that the presentation was over and the Q&A began and there was nothing immediately relevant they're announcing.  Will be looking to buy back in if it gets low enough tomorrow.

It's probably really because what they really want to reveal isn't quite ready yet...  from what I have heard and known there is still quite a bit of a breakthrough on the battery front.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
×
×
  • Create New...